Citibank CEO Rhodes pessimistic on world economy

September 16, 2006 - 0:0
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Slowing growth in the United States and lagging inflation pose a serious risk to economies around the world, Citibank Chief Executive William Rhodes said on Friday, adding that growth in emerging markets and Europe would not be enough to pick up slack in the U.S. market.

Rhodes, who is also senior vice chairman of Citibank parent Citigroup, said he was confident that his company can weather economic swings but acknowledged that his views were more negative than most.

"I'm probably in the minority in this regard," he said during a media briefing related to this month's International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting in Singapore. "The United States faces great challenges in both the growth area and the inflation area."

The IMF on Thursday said it had raised its 2007 world growth forecast to 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent, although it lowered growth estimates for the United States and its executives have also warned of the risks posed by inflation and unbalanced trade flows.

"While growth performance in the Eurozone, Japan and other parts of Asia, China in particular, has been encouraging this year, it is not sufficient to offset the global implications of the negative turn in the U.S. outlook," Rhodes said.

He expressed particular concern about the U.S. housing market, where a batch of adjustable rate mortgages will come due next year and force lenders to pay higher interest rates, likely cutting into consumer spending.

He said the conditions were developing for possible stagflation, or a stagnant economy coupled with rising prices.

Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Josef Ackermann, speaking at the same briefing as Rhodes, declared himself in the more optimistic majority.

But both bankers were in agreement that the IMF needs to make more progress to reduce global imbalances in trade and exchange rates, which are a major challenge for emerging markets.

"In the spring, we saw how negative shocks can swiftly prompt sharp corrections in these markets," said Rhodes.

"This episode can and should influence the actions of emerging market sovereign issuers and investors alike as they consider the period ahead, especially given the more challenging global economic environment that is developing," he said.

Stock markets around the world, but particularly in places like India and Hong Kong, took big hits during May and June on fears of rising global interest rates.

Citigroup, the world's most valuable financial services company, has far-flung global operations and wide exposure to emerging markets like India, China and South America, but Rhodes said the group can make money in good markets and bad.